Population Viability Analysis (PVA)
Before the implementation of the StAR Project, a PVA which is a quantitative assessment of species extinction risk under current or predicted conditions, was first conducted by our team and led by Dr. Kathy Traylor-Holzer from the
@iucn_conservationplanningsg . Using cutting-edge population modeling, the PVA helped our team answer essential questions like: Should we conduct augmentation for zebra sharks? For how long should we augment the species, and how many per year? What does ultimate success look like and when do we stop augmenting?
Q: Notice how the numbers on Slide 4 appear to decrease from one stage to the next?
A: This takes into account the projected mortality of the sharks between various stages, which is to be expected. The good news is that our progress thus far with the StAR Project has demonstrated much lower mortality than the PVA had originally predicted.
Q: ‘500 baby sharks to be released...’ headlines our
@natgeo feature, so why is that number different from the 327 projected in the PVA?
A: Conducted in 2021, the PVA was one of the formative steps in setting up the StAR Project. It was and still remains a projection, which helps inform (rather than predict) the actual progress. Lower levels of mortality (including more eggs hatching than first modeled and almost all pups surviving from hatching to release) have allowed us to revise our projections for release upwards. Hence, with the same number of eggs being shipped still, we expect to release more sharks (around 500) now. That will bring the population in Raja Ampat to or over the minimum viable population size required to maintain high genetic diversity and avoid inbreeding.
Link in bio for the full report.
Illustrations by
@natewilsonpaints
#ReShark #StARProject #LeopardShark #ZebraShark #Ocean #Conservation #Shark #Rewilding #PopulationViabilityAnalysis #IUCN #Modeling #Indonesia 
